The AP has a story out today about Republican Party officials preparing for a contested convention. If the R establishment is making any sort of preparations for a "contested" convention this cycle different than it has for the past ten, there's only one reason for that that makes any sense. They're preparing to steal the nomination from Trump or Cruz. Talk of the field being deeply divided is hogwash. Other than cycles in which a sitting R president is running, no candidate ever has >50% in the polls at this point in the race, before the first primary or caucus. If anything, this cycle is unusual in having had a wider and more consistent front-runner than is at all usual. There is no reason to think that momentum will not kick in this cycle as it has for decades, and propel the winner of most of the early contests into a comfortable majority of delegates long before the convention This talk of a contested convention is being put out because the party establishment doesn't at all like the likely winners, Trump or Cruz. But the only way they are at all likely to be able to contest the convention will be by contesting the seating of the delegate majorities that Trump or Cruz are likely to have won before the convention. If the seating of a large swath of delegates chosen by primary and caucus are challenged, and the RNC permanent committee in charge before the convention is gaveled in, defers seating decisions to the convention, then the opening votes by the convention will be dominated by the super delegates. They get in by way of holding this or that elected or party office, not by being chosen from a primary or caucus, and therefore can't have their seating contested. And no, there won't be any difficulty generating credible seating challenges. The rules for going from primary or caucus votes to delegates are complicated, arcane and have been changed quite a bit since the last time they were important for anything other than allocating among local party apparatchiks the reward of a trip to a convention where their duties would be purely ceremonial. There are challenges every cycle anyway, and in a year when it's more important than usual who attends, because the convention might actually decide something this cycle, there would be many more, even if there was no fix in. The plain English of what party insiders are spoon-feeding the AP, is that these insiders are willing and able to steal the nomination if they have to. Part of why they would put out this coded message is that they want to signal folks in state party leadership that they don't have to go native, paint themselves blue and run naked through the forest with the Trumpies. A plan is in place to keep the party from going native, so they should hold fast and do what they can on their end to make sure there are credible seating challenge opportunities created. But they also would want to start introducing the general public to the idea of a contested convention, so it won't be such a shock when the apparent majority delegate winner doesn't win the nomination. Lastly, they want to start preparing that most clueless of participants in the process, the media. The media loves a horse race, can't resist gearing their "reporting" to a horse race. The insiders want to get the media started speculating about a new kind of horse race, jockeying for votes at the convention. The more the media talks about that, and the earlier we have such talk, the less stark and jarring the eventual crime of stealing the nomination from Trump or Cruz will seem to the general public. Perhaps most importantly, if the media starts thinking in terms of contested conventions, and particularly contested seating, they will hold back from declaring Trump or Cruz the winner once they reach a certain delegate count, because they will have to start thinking in new terms, that delegate counts aren't certain until the convention decides who gets seated. They're only going to be able to get away with stealing this thing if it isn't an obvious, naked, theft. They have to prep the ground to meet that condition.
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